SYNOPSIS: Capital projects often than not experience significant cost over-runs and schedule delays, eroding project’ commercial values or profitability. One of the many researched reasons why major projects have such bad reputation is lacking robust and diligent project risk management practice, not only qualifying risks but to quantify the aggregated impacts of such foreseeable risks to the project.
Contingency is an essential element of project budget that is deemed to be spent by project team. In addition risk reserve funds are supplementary to cover the extraordinary and rare-event driven risks during project execution. How to derive the contingency and risk reserve funds in a scientific way is not a well-known to many project controls personnel. This presentation illustrates how a Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to simulate appropriate contingency at a given confidence level, and fits into cost estimate classification.
John G. Zhao
Principal Consultant at Riskcore Ltd.