Author: iLocal

SPEAKER: Rodney Percival PE – Chief Cost Engineer, Los Angeles World Airports (LAWA) Los Angeles World Airports (LAWA)

Mr. Rodney Percival is a PE and has been the Chief Cost Engineer for Los Angeles World Airports for the past 12 years. He has spent decades working with estimating and cost control and is the founder of Capital Program Solutions (Caproso).

SYNOPSIS:

How to establish a simple historical cost database that is specific to your industry and organization. A case study from a major organization that successfully utilized this technique will be presented to demonstrate the many advantages of collecting, compiling and using relevant historical cost information for your organization.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
March 10th, 2022 @ 12:00 PM (PST)

The Muskrat Falls project in Newfoundland, Canada is a highly complex mega project consisting of a dam and an 824 MW hydroelectric plant and associated transmission lines.   Project participants had to deal with unique challenges in project planning and execution such as geography, climate, investment, the demand for fast completion, and other factors, both internal and external to the project.

Unfortunately, this mega project experienced huge cost overruns and delay that are typical of most major capital investments.   A Commission of Inquiry was established to investigate the project performance throughout the life cycle of this project with focus on the root causes for the huge cost overrun and delay that was experienced. The Commission of Inquiry issued a thorough report entitled “Muskrat Falls: A Misguided Project”.

Dr Jergeas who was retained by the Commission of Inquiry to review evidence and provide opinion will discuss causes and lessons learnt in some of the following areas.

• Underestimation of project costs, contingencies, and management reserve
• Team lacked relevant experience
• Lack of governance and oversight
• Non-disclosure of information and lack of flow of information
• Early warning signs were ignored
• Unsuitable contractual strategies
• Faulty contractor selection and management
• Winter conditions
• Low construction productivity
• Geotechnical and disputes
• Major issues with stakeholder/environmental management
• Consultation with aboriginal people
• Lack of teamwork, and lack of empowerment

This presentation is relevant to anyone who is involved in the delivery of major capital projects in North America especially owners in government organizations such municipal, federal, and state agencies.

Learning objective:

• Not to repeat history – we can do better.

Bio: Dr. George Jergeas P. Eng. PhD

Professor Emeritus, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Chair, iProjects Inc., Calgary, Alberta, Canada

George is a Civil Engineer with an MSc and PhD in Construction Management from Loughborough University, UK with over 45 years of industry and academic experience.  He served as a Professor at the University of Calgary from 1994 to 2021.

George has delivered project management training and consulting services to professional associations and companies across North America, Asia, and Europe.

Throughout his career, George’s focus is on project governance, project execution planning, value improving practices, project assurance and readiness, risk analysis and management, contract administration, construction productivity, teambuilding and collaborative relationships, claims & disputes resolution.

George’s team building methodology has been successfully implemented on over 180 projects across North America. As an expert witness, George testified before the Commission of Inquiry regarding Muskrat Falls Project.

George is also the coauthor of 4 books and over 100 articles, journals, and publications.

His books are:

Risk Navigation Strategies for Major Capital Projects: Beyond the Myth of Predictability,
Springer, 2011

Benevolent Dictatorship for Major Capital Projects,
LearnAcademy, 2017, Amazon.ca

Project Risk and Opportunity Management, The Owner’s Perspective, Routledge,
Taylor & Francis Group, 2019

Evolving Toolbox for Complex Project Management,
Taylor & Francis Group, November 2019 – The Legal Issues chapter.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:

Jan. 13th, 2022 @ 12:00 PM (PST)

MEETING TRANSCRIPT:

https://transcripts.gotomeeting.com/#/s/6179cfcdfe4ddfa0537ede7f8b1f25799addc27905f4d58fb85c8b8b13cf478d

SPEAKER: Alan Keizur, PE

SPEAKER’s BIO: Alan Keizur is a Principal with Golder Associates (member of WSP) based in Redmond, Washington. Alan is a civil engineer with over 25 years of experience specializing in quantitative risk assessment, risk management, decision analysis, and performance evaluation for infrastructure projects and engineered systems. Alan and his colleagues at Golder have supported the development and implementation of Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT’s) Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP®) for nearly 20 years, and has also provided support and training to numerous other local, state, and federal agencies, and private clients. He has successfully completed evaluations of over 200 infrastructure projects, collectively valued at over $150 billion, in various stages of development including planning, design, construction, operations, and closure. Alan has extensive experience in workshop facilitation and subject matter expert elicitation. Alan has worked across a variety of industries and applications, including transportation, buildings and facilities, mining, utilities, nuclear, and general infrastructure.

SYNOPSIS: Risk-based cost and schedule estimating approaches have been adopted by many public agencies in recent years to help address the problem of cost and schedule overrun in transportation and other infrastructure projects. However, limited research into the effectiveness of these approaches has been conducted. This talk will provide an overview of current approaches to conducting quantitative risk assessment and risk management for capital projects, highlighting the Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT’s) Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP®) process, along with alternative approaches employed by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). In addition, an analysis of results will be presented including: 1) the progression of risk-based estimates for 41 representative infrastructure projects across North America that each underwent multiple risk evaluations, and 2) an evaluation of the performance of 28 highway projects completed by WSDOT between 2016 and 2019, including a comparison of those projects that underwent a formal risk assessment with those projects that did not. Alan will also share his perspective on best practices and lessons learned.

LOCATION: Renaissance Seattle Hotel – Fig and The Judge Restaurant – 515 Madison Street, Seattle, Washington 98104

PROGRAM DATE & TIME (PST):
Dec 09th, 2021
5:00PM

SPEAKER: Larry Dysert, CCP CEP DRMP FAACE

Larry is the Managing Partner of Conquest Consulting Group (CCG). Larry has been actively involved in many of CCG’s consulting areas, including providing cold eyes estimate reviews, estimate preparation, cost engineering organizational development, project controls, risk management, training, and claims/dispute resolution support.

Larry has over forty years of project estimating, management, consulting, and training experience in a variety of industries. He is a Certified Cost Professional, Certified Estimating Professional, and Decision and Risk Management Professional. Larry is also an Award of Merit recipient, Honorary Lifetime Member, and Fellow of AACE International. Larry is a past Vice-President of the Technical Board for AACE International and a frequent presenter, author and trainer on estimating and cost engineering topics.

Synopsis:

A common issue often faced by estimators is how to prepare an estimate when there is little information or scope definition on which to base the estimate. This paper provides an overview of conceptual estimating methodologies, with particular application to preparing capital facility estimates for the process industries. However, the techniques can be used to support estimating for other sectors as well.

There are many order-of-magnitude or conceptual estimating methods, and each can be useful in a specific situation. Often, a single estimate may rely on using a combination of estimating techniques for different portions of the project. The conceptual estimating methods discussed in this presentation include:

Analogy Estimating
Capacity Factored Estimating
End-Product Units Estimating
Physical-Dimensions Estimating
LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
Nov 18th, 2021 @ 12:00 PM (PDT)
Link to recording of meeting:
https://transcripts.gotomeeting.com/#/s/6b2ebd6426b6ee3e8a44e3f6b24ce081f6879494388e2f10a4516ca552277ee2

SPEAKER:
John K. Hollmann
Validation Estimating LLC

John K. Hollmann: John, lead author of AACE® International’s TCM Framework (2006) and author of “Project Risk Quantification” (2016), owns Validation Estimating, LLC (VE). He works with capital program managers and project leaders in a variety of industries from process to infrastructure to improve their cost engineering practices; i.e., estimating, project control, risk quantification, etc. Mr. Hollmann is a frequent speaker at international conferences, has written many papers, and often leads training workshops. He is an Honorary Life Member of AACE® and also recipient of their Award of Merit and Lifetime Achievement Awards. He was Director of Recommended Practices at AACE® and also led development of the AACE® Decision and Risk Management Professional certification. Prior to founding VE, Mr. Hollmann led metrics and research efforts at Independent Project Analysis, Inc. Prior to that he worked in estimating and controls for owner and contractor companies. His latest venture is cloud-based risk quantification software called ValidRisk (www.validrisk.com) based on his 2016 book; transportation and infrastructure are some of the industries covered.

Synopsis: AACE RPs address empirically-based, risk-driven parametric modeling to quantify systemic risks. These RPs reflect the process industry’s embrace of phase-gate project systems and research supporting the methods. While the cost overrun-prone transportation sector is catching up in applying phase-gate systems, it lags in benchmarking and research. Research in other industries shows that fundamental practice failures (i.e., systemic risks) cause cost growth. However, in transportation and infrastructure, too-narrow estimate accuracy range expectations are wired into owner phase-gate procedures. Estimators use largely subjective risk analysis methods that underestimate contingency because it meets these narrow expectations; so, the cost overrun cycle repeats. Those who benefit from low estimates (promoters/politicians) need not lie about costs; they can just announce a project early in scope definition in perfect confidence that estimators will fail to put a price on poor scope definition. This presentation (subtitle: “we have met the enemy and he is us”) reviews the cost overrun situation, the theories, the research and the various proposed and recommended methods. Despite all evidence to the contrary, the presenter is hopeful that empirically-valid risk quantification and contingency setting practices (e.g., such as ValidRisk) will become more widely used, putting an end to endemic cost overruns in the transportation industry.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
Oct 14th, 2021 @ 12:00 PM (PDT)

Link to recording of meeting:
https://transcripts.gotomeeting.com/#/s/918d955ec5468f10b47a797f110a1c59b820d12221ab63fc6dbf7ea2d9109139

SPEAKERS:

Peter Starnes and Jay Mezher

Mott MacDonald

Peter Starnes: Peter has more than 25 years of experience in maritime civil engineering for infrastructure and transportation projects. He champions the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) processes and provides leadership and guidance for collaborative working. He acts as information manager on BIM projects to ISO:19650, and devises and monitors suitable workflows for BIM processes, tailored to the needs of the project. Peter manages a team of BIM coordinators and is responsible for ensuring consistent quality and on-time delivery of technical models.

Jay Mezher NCARB, AIA: Mr. Mezher is a licensed architect and an experienced digital design and delivery professional, he serves as a director on advanced BIM/VDC/Digital Delivery topics, specific to the Transportation, Energy and Water Sectors. Mr. Mezher currently serves as the North America South America (NASA) Regional Digital Delivery Leader. With more than 18 years at a major engineering firm, Mr. Mezher has participated in projects including the BART Silicon Valley Phase II Extension, California High-Speed Rail, Alaskan Way Viaduct Replacement, SR 520 Floating Bridge (Seattle), Amtrak B&P Tunnel (Baltimore), East Side Access, Second Avenue Subway, LaGuardia International Airport, Eurasia Tunnel (Istanbul), and many others. Mr. Mezher has published articles and given presentations on BIM and virtual design and has taught at the Autodesk University conference and at George Mason University. He was honored for the innovative use of BIM and design software at the 2013 NCE International Tunneling Awards and has won awards for his work on the Alaskan Way Viaduct Replacement Program.

Synopsis: Peter Starnes and Jay Mezher discuss how BIM models can be used to bring greater confidence and clarity to the constructability and cost estimating process during design and construction phases. What is required to develop accurate quantity take off from 3D models and what are the benefits and limitations of adding time and cost dimensions.

SPEAKER:

Peter Starnes – BIM Manager

Mott MacDonald

Mr. Starnes has more than 25 years of experience in maritime civil engineering for infrastructure and transportation projects. He champions the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) processes and provides leadership and guidance for collaborative working. He acts as information manager on BIM projects to ISO:19650, and devises and monitors suitable workflows for BIM processes, tailored to the needs of the project. Mr. Starnes manages a team of BIM coordinators and is responsible for ensuring consistent quality and on-time delivery of technical models.  Mr. Starnes is currently the BIM Manager responsible for overall BIM management for the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Silicon Valley Extension Phase II (BSVII) in San José, CA.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:

Jun 24^th, 2021 @ 7:00 PM (PST)