Capital Project Risk Assessment and Risk Management: Best Practices, Outcomes, and Lessons Learned

SPEAKER: Alan Keizur, PE

SPEAKER’s BIO: Alan Keizur is a Principal with Golder Associates (member of WSP) based in Redmond, Washington. Alan is a civil engineer with over 25 years of experience specializing in quantitative risk assessment, risk management, decision analysis, and performance evaluation for infrastructure projects and engineered systems. Alan and his colleagues at Golder have supported the development and implementation of Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT’s) Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP®) for nearly 20 years, and has also provided support and training to numerous other local, state, and federal agencies, and private clients. He has successfully completed evaluations of over 200 infrastructure projects, collectively valued at over $150 billion, in various stages of development including planning, design, construction, operations, and closure. Alan has extensive experience in workshop facilitation and subject matter expert elicitation. Alan has worked across a variety of industries and applications, including transportation, buildings and facilities, mining, utilities, nuclear, and general infrastructure.

SYNOPSIS: Risk-based cost and schedule estimating approaches have been adopted by many public agencies in recent years to help address the problem of cost and schedule overrun in transportation and other infrastructure projects. However, limited research into the effectiveness of these approaches has been conducted. This talk will provide an overview of current approaches to conducting quantitative risk assessment and risk management for capital projects, highlighting the Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT’s) Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP®) process, along with alternative approaches employed by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). In addition, an analysis of results will be presented including: 1) the progression of risk-based estimates for 41 representative infrastructure projects across North America that each underwent multiple risk evaluations, and 2) an evaluation of the performance of 28 highway projects completed by WSDOT between 2016 and 2019, including a comparison of those projects that underwent a formal risk assessment with those projects that did not. Alan will also share his perspective on best practices and lessons learned.

LOCATION: Renaissance Seattle Hotel – Fig and The Judge Restaurant – 515 Madison Street, Seattle, Washington 98104

PROGRAM DATE & TIME (PST):
Dec 09th, 2021
5:00PM – Social Hour (The 515 Bar’s evening Ritual – Mixologists come up with a cocktail or punch unique to the evening)
6:00PM – Dinner
6:45PM – Program Starts
8:00PM – Program Ends

COST:
The member price for this event is $42.00 if you register before 12:00 Noon on the Monday immediately preceding the meeting; late registration is $47.00.

Non-members price is $49.00 before 12:00 Noon on the Monday immediately preceding the meeting, and $55.00 thereafter.

For individuals who are just Attending (No Dinner) is $30.00.

REGISTRATION: Register here: https://www.brownpapertickets.com/event/5309733

MENU:
Harvest Salad mixed greens, almonds, honey crisp apples, red onion, roasted sweet potato, goat cheese & lemon thyme dressing

Choice of Entrée Below:
Grilled Columbia River Steelhead
Pan Seared Chicken
Vegetarian Red Bean Lentil Shepherd’s Pie
Chef’s Choice of Starch and Seasonal Vegetables, Desert and Starbucks Coffee

If you have specific dietary restrictions please contact us at contact@aaceseattle.org so that we can accommodate you.

PLEASE NOTE:
The AACE Seattle Section must pay for all meals that are ordered. If you RSVP that you will attend, you are responsible for the bill of your meal. In addition, if you attend without an RSVP there is a possibility that your meal options will be limited from those listed above. If you would like to be added to the Seattle Section’s mailing list to receive future notices about our meetings and events, please contact one of the presiding Officers or Directors.

Conceptual Estimating Methodologies

SPEAKER: Larry Dysert, CCP CEP DRMP FAACE

Larry is the Managing Partner of Conquest Consulting Group (CCG). Larry has been actively involved in many of CCG’s consulting areas, including providing cold eyes estimate reviews, estimate preparation, cost engineering organizational development, project controls, risk management, training, and claims/dispute resolution support.

Larry has over forty years of project estimating, management, consulting, and training experience in a variety of industries. He is a Certified Cost Professional, Certified Estimating Professional, and Decision and Risk Management Professional. Larry is also an Award of Merit recipient, Honorary Lifetime Member, and Fellow of AACE International. Larry is a past Vice-President of the Technical Board for AACE International and a frequent presenter, author and trainer on estimating and cost engineering topics.

Synopsis:

A common issue often faced by estimators is how to prepare an estimate when there is little information or scope definition on which to base the estimate. This paper provides an overview of conceptual estimating methodologies, with particular application to preparing capital facility estimates for the process industries. However, the techniques can be used to support estimating for other sectors as well.

There are many order-of-magnitude or conceptual estimating methods, and each can be useful in a specific situation. Often, a single estimate may rely on using a combination of estimating techniques for different portions of the project. The conceptual estimating methods discussed in this presentation include:

Analogy Estimating
Capacity Factored Estimating
End-Product Units Estimating
Physical-Dimensions Estimating
LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
Nov 18th, 2021 @ 12:00 PM (PDT)
Link to recording of meeting:
https://transcripts.gotomeeting.com/#/s/6b2ebd6426b6ee3e8a44e3f6b24ce081f6879494388e2f10a4516ca552277ee2

TITLE: Parametric Quantification of Systemic Risks for Transportation and Infrastructure Projects

SPEAKER:
John K. Hollmann
Validation Estimating LLC

John K. Hollmann: John, lead author of AACE® International’s TCM Framework (2006) and author of “Project Risk Quantification” (2016), owns Validation Estimating, LLC (VE). He works with capital program managers and project leaders in a variety of industries from process to infrastructure to improve their cost engineering practices; i.e., estimating, project control, risk quantification, etc. Mr. Hollmann is a frequent speaker at international conferences, has written many papers, and often leads training workshops. He is an Honorary Life Member of AACE® and also recipient of their Award of Merit and Lifetime Achievement Awards. He was Director of Recommended Practices at AACE® and also led development of the AACE® Decision and Risk Management Professional certification. Prior to founding VE, Mr. Hollmann led metrics and research efforts at Independent Project Analysis, Inc. Prior to that he worked in estimating and controls for owner and contractor companies. His latest venture is cloud-based risk quantification software called ValidRisk (www.validrisk.com) based on his 2016 book; transportation and infrastructure are some of the industries covered.

Synopsis: AACE RPs address empirically-based, risk-driven parametric modeling to quantify systemic risks. These RPs reflect the process industry’s embrace of phase-gate project systems and research supporting the methods. While the cost overrun-prone transportation sector is catching up in applying phase-gate systems, it lags in benchmarking and research. Research in other industries shows that fundamental practice failures (i.e., systemic risks) cause cost growth. However, in transportation and infrastructure, too-narrow estimate accuracy range expectations are wired into owner phase-gate procedures. Estimators use largely subjective risk analysis methods that underestimate contingency because it meets these narrow expectations; so, the cost overrun cycle repeats. Those who benefit from low estimates (promoters/politicians) need not lie about costs; they can just announce a project early in scope definition in perfect confidence that estimators will fail to put a price on poor scope definition. This presentation (subtitle: “we have met the enemy and he is us”) reviews the cost overrun situation, the theories, the research and the various proposed and recommended methods. Despite all evidence to the contrary, the presenter is hopeful that empirically-valid risk quantification and contingency setting practices (e.g., such as ValidRisk) will become more widely used, putting an end to endemic cost overruns in the transportation industry.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
Oct 14th, 2021 @ 12:00 PM (PDT)

Link to recording of meeting:
https://transcripts.gotomeeting.com/#/s/918d955ec5468f10b47a797f110a1c59b820d12221ab63fc6dbf7ea2d9109139

TITLE: BIM for Cost Estimating and the Benefits of 4D/5D Modeling

SPEAKERS:

Peter Starnes and Jay Mezher

Mott MacDonald

Peter Starnes: Peter has more than 25 years of experience in maritime civil engineering for infrastructure and transportation projects. He champions the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) processes and provides leadership and guidance for collaborative working. He acts as information manager on BIM projects to ISO:19650, and devises and monitors suitable workflows for BIM processes, tailored to the needs of the project. Peter manages a team of BIM coordinators and is responsible for ensuring consistent quality and on-time delivery of technical models.

Jay Mezher NCARB, AIA: Mr. Mezher is a licensed architect and an experienced digital design and delivery professional, he serves as a director on advanced BIM/VDC/Digital Delivery topics, specific to the Transportation, Energy and Water Sectors. Mr. Mezher currently serves as the North America South America (NASA) Regional Digital Delivery Leader. With more than 18 years at a major engineering firm, Mr. Mezher has participated in projects including the BART Silicon Valley Phase II Extension, California High-Speed Rail, Alaskan Way Viaduct Replacement, SR 520 Floating Bridge (Seattle), Amtrak B&P Tunnel (Baltimore), East Side Access, Second Avenue Subway, LaGuardia International Airport, Eurasia Tunnel (Istanbul), and many others. Mr. Mezher has published articles and given presentations on BIM and virtual design and has taught at the Autodesk University conference and at George Mason University. He was honored for the innovative use of BIM and design software at the 2013 NCE International Tunneling Awards and has won awards for his work on the Alaskan Way Viaduct Replacement Program.

Synopsis: Peter Starnes and Jay Mezher discuss how BIM models can be used to bring greater confidence and clarity to the constructability and cost estimating process during design and construction phases. What is required to develop accurate quantity take off from 3D models and what are the benefits and limitations of adding time and cost dimensions.

Use of BIM to Facilitate Cost Estimating on BART to Silicon Valley Extension

SPEAKER:

Peter Starnes – BIM Manager

Mott MacDonald

Mr. Starnes has more than 25 years of experience in maritime civil engineering for infrastructure and transportation projects. He champions the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) processes and provides leadership and guidance for collaborative working. He acts as information manager on BIM projects to ISO:19650, and devises and monitors suitable workflows for BIM processes, tailored to the needs of the project. Mr. Starnes manages a team of BIM coordinators and is responsible for ensuring consistent quality and on-time delivery of technical models.  Mr. Starnes is currently the BIM Manager responsible for overall BIM management for the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) Silicon Valley Extension Phase II (BSVII) in San José, CA.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:

Jun 24th, 2021 @ 7:00 PM (PST)

 AACE Section Joint Technical Session: Decision & Risk Management 101 & a preview of the upcoming AACE International Project Risk Management Professional (PRMP) certification

SYNOPSIS: 

The word “risk” means different things to different people. There is risk according to insurance industry underwriting; there is an entirely different meaning among the financial and investment community. There are also safety, threat, and vulnerability risks, in addition to enterprise risks, just to mention a few. Within AACE we have narrowed our focus to cover two primary categories of risk: the risks associated with business decisions when committing capital resources for asset investments, and the risks associated with the planning, design, construction, operations, and maintenance of specific projects. The focus of this presentation will be on the latter, which in the broader sense is referred to as project risk management.

Within the field of project risk management, it is important to understand that there are necessary distinctions among the responses of various project personnel to the risk management process. The roles and responsibilities, as well as the level of expertise, are different for project managers, project control personnel such as estimators and schedulers, and the risk manager. These individuals should understand what they need to know regarding their individual roles in a comprehensive risk management program

This presentation will introduce the primary tenets of risk management and discuss how the varying roles of project personnel work together to complement each other within the overall risk management process. It will take a look at the new AACE certification requirements for a

Project Risk Management Professional (PRMP), scheduled for introduction at the June 2021 AACE International Conference & Expo.

GUEST SPEAKER:

David Norfleet

Deputy Project Manager, Risk and Contracts Management

 

LOCATION: (Virtual)

WEBINAR TIME:

April 08th, 2021 @ 3:30pm to 5:00 pm. PDT

 

TITLE: Work Condition during Pandemic (Mental Health/Productivity/etc.)

To All Members and Colleagues,

We are proud to add another panelist, Chris Mack – Manager, Construction Management Unit, Wastewater Treatment Division, King County Dept. of Natural Resources and Parks

SYNOPSIS:
Construction projects faced challenges and experienced periods of interruptions as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Health concerns (both mental and physical), new safety measures such as social distancing, wearing masks, and sanitization requirements impacted productivity and added potential cost and/or time. However, the extent of these impacts and contract implications have been different among projects.  On this Webinar, AACE Seattle Section invited panelists to discuss their views, risks and responses to executing projects during the pandemic.

PANELISTS:
Janice Zahn
Assistant Director Engineering, Port of Seattle
Matthew Preedy
Director of Construction Management, Sound Transit
Chris Mack
Manager, Construction Management Unit, Wastewater Treatment Division, King County Dept. of Natural Resources and Parks, WSDOT
Mark Sliger
CM Manager of Capital Projects, Seattle Dept of Transportation

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
Jan. 14th, 2021 @ 11:45am PST
11:45am –Log-in to Webinar
12:00pm – Webinar Starts
12:45pm – Q&A
1:00pm – Webinar Ends

TITLE: Supporting Diverse Businesses at the Port of Seattle

SYNOPSIS:
What does it entails to have a company or agency be Diverse in doing Business?  Like Port of Seattle, the agency is admired on how they give importance on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion.
There are a lot of ways to support the goal of an agency to be diversified, it may include project contracting, hiring employees, giving services and selling goods. We at AACE Seattle have invited a great
person who has an important role in developing and managing diversity on projects.  Him being a catalyst who creates a diverse environment is out most important for a company to become successful.

PRESENTER:
Lawrence Coleman
Woman/Minority Business Ent Mgr.,
Diversity in Contracting

LOCATION: Go To Meeting

PROGRAM TIME:
Dec. 17th, 2020 @ 11:45pm PST
11:45pm –Log-in to Webinar
12:00pm – Webinar Starts
12:45pm – Q&A
1:00pm – Webinar Ends

TITLE: Would you like to save 3% of your project value? Artificial Intelligence may hold the key

SYNOPSIS: 

Learning from past mistakes on construction projects is hard – 98% of mega projects incur cost and time overruns according to McKinsey. The challenges are wide-reaching, from collating historical data, to interpreting results, and comparing results across your entire portfolio history.

Thankfully, new tools are being developed, using Artificial Intelligence techniques, to tackle these challenges and unlock massive savings opportunities for contractors, owners, and the community.

Join Toby Buchanan from nPlan to learn how major project teams are using these tools today on projects around the world.

PRESENTER:

Toby Buchanan

General Manager, nPlan

 

LOCATION: Go To Meeting

PROGRAM TIME:

Nov. 12th, 2020 @ 11:45am PST

65-year-old Fairview Ave N wooden bridge replacement

SYNOPSIS: In Seattle, thousands of people travel on Fairview Ave N between South Lake Union and Eastlake every day without even realizing that they’re passing over Seattle’s last remaining major road on a wooden bridge. This bridge is held up by wooden posts built over 65 years ago; which are decaying and the concrete girders which stabilize the street on the eastern half of the bridge are cracked.

Rebuilding the Fairview Ave bridge is essential for public safety and will accommodate all people. In 2015, Seattle voters approved a levy to provide a $27 million investment in the Fairview Bridge replacement project. To replace the bridge, a section of Fairview Ave N is closed for 18 months. This project will construct sidewalks on both sides as well as a protected 12-foot, 2-way bike lane on the west side of the bridge. Just like today, there will be three lanes for cars and buses. Along with seismic improvements, we’re building 3 new lookout points along the west side of the bridge to provide viewing platforms looking out to Lake Union.

Join us as we share lessons learned, project risks and construction methods for the wooden bridge replacement.

PRESENTER:

Marilyn Yim, PE

Project Manager, Seattle Dept of Transportation