TITLE: Brief Update on Current Events and Initiatives at AACE Headquarters, Featuring Infrastructure Projects Current Trends and Observations

SPEAKER: Shoshanna Fraizinger, CCP, PMP – AACE International President-Elect

Shoshanna is the Owner and President of Shoshanna Fraizinger Consulting Inc. She is also employed at Sargent & Lundy, working as a Project Manager for Project Services in their Nuclear Power Group. Shoshanna holds a Bachelor of Civil Engineering, Structural from Ryerson University and is results-driven, experienced Nuclear Industry Professional with 20+ years of progressive project experience in Project Management and Project Controls. Her experience includes 10+ years supporting recent Mega Refurbishment Projects in Ontario. Through her diverse work experience Shoshanna has been actively involved in various aspects of engineering and construction projects including project management, contract management, trades supervision, business development, regulatory requirements, safety and licensing programs, as well as cost engineering functions such as providing independent project submission reviews, schedule and estimate preparation, risk management and analysis, portfolio and asset management analysis, PMO governance, project management and controls organizational and framework development, and cost engineering training and mentoring. Shoshanna currently holds AACE’s Certified Cost Professional Certification and PMI’s Project Management Professional designation. She has authored and presented 5 papers on varying topics in estimating, planning, and scheduling, and owner issues and is a primary coauthor for an AACE recommended practice. Shoshanna is a recognized instructor for the AACE CEP, CCP, PSP and EVP certification prep courses and is a remote learning instructor for Fanshawe College’s Program Management Program. She currently sits on the AACE Board of Directors as the president elect, and is a member of Women In Nuclear (WiN), the Canadian Nuclear Society (CNS) and the Construction Industry Institute – Project Controls Community for Business Advancement (CII-CBA). Previously, she was also the President of the AACE Bruce County Local Section, and Treasurer of AACE Region 1. As an active member of AACE, Shoshanna has participated in various task forces and committees, special interest groups and technical subcommittees including; the Curriculum Taskforce, AACE Strategic Planning and AACE Executive Director Search team, AACE Technical- Education-Certification Alignment Group, the cost estimating technical subcommittee, the planning and scheduling technical subcommittee and EVM technical subcommittee.

SYNOPSIS:

The scope of Infrastructure projects tends to focus on the development or maintenance of services, facilities, and systems with a public benefit in any of the following sectors: Aviation, Bridges, Roads, Railways, Ports and Canals, Communications, Power and Energy, Water and Waste Management. Infrastructure Projects can be funded by private companies, publicly, or combined as a public-private partnership and are vital for boosting or managing the economic development and sustainment of a city, state/province, or an entire country. In 2020 there was an overall increase in both the private ($346.5 billion) and public sectors of construction ($1022.7 billion) in the US, and these trends are echoed in Canada as well. Even with the challenges seen in 2020 which included rising material costs, loss of labor with specialized construction skills, and struggles to implement new technology, infrastructure developments are appearing more promising than in the past. At the tail end of the COVID pandemic, infrastructure structure projects also have the capability of allowing governments at any level to reimagine their public planning and rebuild their economies.

This presentation will:

– Give a general overview of the status of infrastructure projects in North America, providing general briefings on the current US and Canadian infrastructure plans,
– Discuss the post Covid infrastructure project impacts and economic considerations, which may be relevant and apply globally, and,
– Touch on infrastructure planning and investment modernization and innovation considerations

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)
PROGRAM TIME:

July 14th, 2022 @ 12:00 PM (PST)

Link to recording

TITLE: Timing Your Time Extensions and General Conditions Costs

SPEAKER: Brian J. Furniss, PE, PSP, CCP, CFCC – Principal at Point Construction Advisory Group

Brian J. Furniss has served the construction industry for over 20 years, analyzing complex construction projects and providing expert testimony on scheduling, delays, productivity losses, and damages. Mr. Furniss applies his expertise both during and after the construction process, focusing primarily on CPM scheduling, delay and productivity analyses, change and risk management, cost analysis, dispute resolution, and claim analysis. Mr. Furniss is a licensed Professional Engineer (Industrial) in Florida, Texas, California, and Colorado, and is a Planning and Scheduling Professional (PSP), a Certified Cost Professional (CCP), and a Certified Forensic Claims Consultant (CFCC) with AACE International. He is a principal co-author of the book, Construction Delays: Understanding Them Clearly, Analyzing Them Correctly, and has authored articles for construction industry publications. Mr. Furniss is an award-winning speaker, provides training and presentations to construction industry organizations, and is a Fellow with the Project Management College of Scheduling (PMCOS). Mr. Furniss has experience on airport, bridge, commercial, entertainment, gas, oil, and plastics refinery, government, healthcare, high rise, highway, hospital, laboratory, pipeline, prison, residential, sports arena, theme park, tunnel, transit, water, and wastewater projects in the United States, U.S. Territories, Canada, United Kingdom, Middle East, Australia, and Antarctica.

SYNOPSIS:

Resolving time extensions and extended general conditions are challenging issues for contractors, subcontractors, and owners. Submission timing is often key to resolving a time extension favorably, and if there is no resolution, that timing may be important to preserving one’s ability to successfully resolve a claim. Further complicating resolution are the different methods available for quantifying extended general conditions costs and how general conditions may vary over time. Using the costs incurred during the delay period may yield very different results than using the costs at the end, or tail, of the project. This paper will provide a brief introduction on how the timing of time extensions is crucial for successful resolution of change orders and claims, and will also provide recommendations for how to accurately price extended general conditions costs in various project scenarios.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:

June 09th, 2022 @ 12:00 PM (PST)

TITLE: Panel Discussion: Sound Transit Northgate Link Extension Project

PANELISTS:

· Colby Hess: North Corridor Project Controls Manager – Sound Transit

· Linda Morud: Northgate Link Extension Project Construction Manager – Sound Transit

· Mark Shelton: Northgate Link Extension Project Senior Scheduling Engineer – Sound Transit

FACILITATOR: Andrea Forderer: Director of Project Control Delivery and Reporting – Sound Transit

PANELISTS BIOs:

· Colby Hess is Sound Transit’s North Corridor Project Control Manager overseeing scope, schedule, and cost control on the Northgate Link, Lynnwood Link, and Everett Link Light Rail Extensions. He also served as Project Control Lead on several of the major Northgate Link construction contracts. He received a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University.

· Linda Morud is the Construction Manager for the L300 Lynnwood Link Extension project from Mountlake Terrance to Lynnwood, and was previously the CM for the Northgate Station, Guideway and Garage project. She also served as the Project Control Supervisor for the Northgate Link Extension for 5 years before transitioning to the construction management team.

· Mark Shelton is a Senior Scheduling Engineer for Sound Transit. Mark is assigned to the Agency’s north corridor Link Light Rail projects, primarily the Northgate, Lynnwood, and Everett Link extensions. Prior to joining Sound Transit, Mr. Shelton worked in scheduling and project controls for construction management and engineering firms in both Los Angeles and the Seattle area. Mark is an AACE certified Planning and Schedule Professional, and received his Bachelor of Science degree from Colorado State University.

SYNOPSIS:

The Northgate Link Extension opened in October 2021, adding 4.3 miles and three stations to Sound Transit’s Link Light Rail network. This panel discussion includes three Sound Transit staff who assisted in the on-time, under budget project delivery. A brief presentation about the project will be followed by a Q&A session.

LOCATION: Renaissance Seattle Hotel – Fig and The Judge Restaurant – 515 Madison Street, Seattle, Washington 98104

PROGRAM TIME:

May 12th, 2022

5:00PM – Social Hour

6:00PM – Dinner

6:45PM – Program Starts

8:00PM – Program Ends

TITLE: Case Study:  Challenges of Managing the State Water Project

SPEAKER: Hong Lin PhD, PE – Chief Financial Manager of the California State Water Project

Hong Lin is the Chief Financial Manager of the California State Water Project (SWP).  In this role Hong Lin oversees the development and implementation of policies for comprehensive asset management and capital investment programs for the rehabilitation and refurbishment of SWP facilities in collaboration with SWP senior managers and senior managers of the State Water Contractors.   Ms. Lin is a registered professional engineer in California and received her Ph.D. degree in Civil Engineering from Louisiana State University.

SYNOPSIS:

Challenges of comprehensive asset management and capital investment programs for the State Water Project (SWP) facilities.  The SWP is a multi-purpose water storage and delivery system that extends more than 705 miles — two-thirds the length of California. A collection of canals, pipelines, reservoirs, and hydroelectric power facilities delivers clean water to 27 million Californians, 750,000 acres of farmland, and businesses throughout the state.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:

April 14th, 2022 @ 12:00 PM (PST)

Meeting Transcript »

Historical Costs – Unlocking Your Hidden Treasure

SPEAKER: Rodney Percival PE – Chief Cost Engineer, Los Angeles World Airports (LAWA) Los Angeles World Airports (LAWA)

Mr. Rodney Percival is a PE and has been the Chief Cost Engineer for Los Angeles World Airports for the past 12 years. He has spent decades working with estimating and cost control and is the founder of Capital Program Solutions (Caproso).

SYNOPSIS:

How to establish a simple historical cost database that is specific to your industry and organization. A case study from a major organization that successfully utilized this technique will be presented to demonstrate the many advantages of collecting, compiling and using relevant historical cost information for your organization.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
March 10th, 2022 @ 12:00 PM (PST)

TITLE: 21st Century Enablers for Improving Cost Prediction Accuracy

SPEAKER: James Arrow – Project Risk Management Principal – BHP

With more than 20 years’ professional experience, James has played a key role in successfully delivering critical capital assets, in a variety of locations, around the world. Having had the opportunity to work with diverse teams across the globe, James is well-versed on project best practices and applies exceptional communication skills to lead multi-disciplinary teams. An effective hands-on team-player, James is also an acclaimed writer and speaker on topics concerning project risk management, data analytics, data science, including digital disruption in the engineering and construction sector. In recent years, on several occasions, James has been formally recognized by his peers for his contributions to the profession.

SYNOPSIS:

This decade, the fourth industrial revolution and, for engineering and construction in particular, a 5G enabled industrial internet of things (IIoT), in conjunction with advanced analytics, artificial intelligence or AI, promises rapid near-term gains in the field of PRM (Project Risk Management). However, AI is not a silver bullet. Its potential if often over-hyped or misunderstood. If our goal is improving cost prediction accuracy, and if we prefer a path of rapid progress, over one that is long or winding, we should pause to better understand the technology available to us today. From which position are we planning to advance? What incremental improvement might we realistically accomplish in the near-term? Not all organizations are positioning themselves to head down the right path. In this presentation, suited for all project professionals, we shall take a moment to consider the enablers organizations may employ to embrace a future of AI-enabled capital project decision-making. Ultimately, we shall highlight the proven tools and techniques that can deliver data-driven, fact based decision-making.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:

Feb. 10th, 2022 @ 12:00 PM (PST)

Title: Muskrat Falls Hydro Power Mega Project: Lessons Learned

The Muskrat Falls project in Newfoundland, Canada is a highly complex mega project consisting of a dam and an 824 MW hydroelectric plant and associated transmission lines.   Project participants had to deal with unique challenges in project planning and execution such as geography, climate, investment, the demand for fast completion, and other factors, both internal and external to the project.

Unfortunately, this mega project experienced huge cost overruns and delay that are typical of most major capital investments.   A Commission of Inquiry was established to investigate the project performance throughout the life cycle of this project with focus on the root causes for the huge cost overrun and delay that was experienced. The Commission of Inquiry issued a thorough report entitled “Muskrat Falls: A Misguided Project”.

Dr Jergeas who was retained by the Commission of Inquiry to review evidence and provide opinion will discuss causes and lessons learnt in some of the following areas.

  • Underestimation of project costs, contingencies, and management reserve
  • Team lacked relevant experience
  • Lack of governance and oversight
  • Non-disclosure of information and lack of flow of information
  • Early warning signs were ignored
  • Unsuitable contractual strategies
  • Faulty contractor selection and management
  • Winter conditions
  • Low construction productivity
  • Geotechnical and disputes
  • Major issues with stakeholder/environmental management
  • Consultation with aboriginal people
  • Lack of teamwork, and lack of empowerment

This presentation is relevant to anyone who is involved in the delivery of major capital projects in North America especially owners in government organizations such municipal, federal, and state agencies.

Learning objective:

  • Not to repeat history – we can do better.

Bio: Dr. George Jergeas P. Eng. PhD

Professor Emeritus, University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Chair, iProjects Inc., Calgary, Alberta, Canada

George is a Civil Engineer with an MSc and PhD in Construction Management from Loughborough University, UK with over 45 years of industry and academic experience.  He served as a Professor at the University of Calgary from 1994 to 2021.

George has delivered project management training and consulting services to professional associations and companies across North America, Asia, and Europe.

Throughout his career, George’s focus is on project governance, project execution planning, value improving practices, project assurance and readiness, risk analysis and management, contract administration, construction productivity, teambuilding and collaborative relationships, claims & disputes resolution.

George’s team building methodology has been successfully implemented on over 180 projects across North America. As an expert witness, George testified before the Commission of Inquiry regarding Muskrat Falls Project.

George is also the coauthor of 4 books and over 100 articles, journals, and publications.

His books are:

Risk Navigation Strategies for Major Capital Projects: Beyond the Myth of Predictability,
Springer, 2011

Benevolent Dictatorship for Major Capital Projects,
LearnAcademy, 2017, Amazon.ca

Project Risk and Opportunity Management, The Owner’s Perspective, Routledge,
Taylor & Francis Group, 2019

Evolving Toolbox for Complex Project Management,
Taylor & Francis Group, November 2019 – The Legal Issues chapter.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:

Jan. 13th, 2022 @ 12:00 PM (PST)

MEETING TRANSCRIPT:

https://transcripts.gotomeeting.com/#/s/6179cfcdfe4ddfa0537ede7f8b1f25799addc27905f4d58fb85c8b8b13cf478d

Capital Project Risk Assessment and Risk Management: Best Practices, Outcomes, and Lessons Learned

SPEAKER: Alan Keizur, PE

SPEAKER’s BIO: Alan Keizur is a Principal with Golder Associates (member of WSP) based in Redmond, Washington. Alan is a civil engineer with over 25 years of experience specializing in quantitative risk assessment, risk management, decision analysis, and performance evaluation for infrastructure projects and engineered systems. Alan and his colleagues at Golder have supported the development and implementation of Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT’s) Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP®) for nearly 20 years, and has also provided support and training to numerous other local, state, and federal agencies, and private clients. He has successfully completed evaluations of over 200 infrastructure projects, collectively valued at over $150 billion, in various stages of development including planning, design, construction, operations, and closure. Alan has extensive experience in workshop facilitation and subject matter expert elicitation. Alan has worked across a variety of industries and applications, including transportation, buildings and facilities, mining, utilities, nuclear, and general infrastructure.

SYNOPSIS: Risk-based cost and schedule estimating approaches have been adopted by many public agencies in recent years to help address the problem of cost and schedule overrun in transportation and other infrastructure projects. However, limited research into the effectiveness of these approaches has been conducted. This talk will provide an overview of current approaches to conducting quantitative risk assessment and risk management for capital projects, highlighting the Washington State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT’s) Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP®) process, along with alternative approaches employed by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). In addition, an analysis of results will be presented including: 1) the progression of risk-based estimates for 41 representative infrastructure projects across North America that each underwent multiple risk evaluations, and 2) an evaluation of the performance of 28 highway projects completed by WSDOT between 2016 and 2019, including a comparison of those projects that underwent a formal risk assessment with those projects that did not. Alan will also share his perspective on best practices and lessons learned.

LOCATION: Renaissance Seattle Hotel – Fig and The Judge Restaurant – 515 Madison Street, Seattle, Washington 98104

PROGRAM DATE & TIME (PST):
Dec 09th, 2021
5:00PM

Conceptual Estimating Methodologies

SPEAKER: Larry Dysert, CCP CEP DRMP FAACE

Larry is the Managing Partner of Conquest Consulting Group (CCG). Larry has been actively involved in many of CCG’s consulting areas, including providing cold eyes estimate reviews, estimate preparation, cost engineering organizational development, project controls, risk management, training, and claims/dispute resolution support.

Larry has over forty years of project estimating, management, consulting, and training experience in a variety of industries. He is a Certified Cost Professional, Certified Estimating Professional, and Decision and Risk Management Professional. Larry is also an Award of Merit recipient, Honorary Lifetime Member, and Fellow of AACE International. Larry is a past Vice-President of the Technical Board for AACE International and a frequent presenter, author and trainer on estimating and cost engineering topics.

Synopsis:

A common issue often faced by estimators is how to prepare an estimate when there is little information or scope definition on which to base the estimate. This paper provides an overview of conceptual estimating methodologies, with particular application to preparing capital facility estimates for the process industries. However, the techniques can be used to support estimating for other sectors as well.

There are many order-of-magnitude or conceptual estimating methods, and each can be useful in a specific situation. Often, a single estimate may rely on using a combination of estimating techniques for different portions of the project. The conceptual estimating methods discussed in this presentation include:

Analogy Estimating
Capacity Factored Estimating
End-Product Units Estimating
Physical-Dimensions Estimating
LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
Nov 18th, 2021 @ 12:00 PM (PDT)
Link to recording of meeting:
https://transcripts.gotomeeting.com/#/s/6b2ebd6426b6ee3e8a44e3f6b24ce081f6879494388e2f10a4516ca552277ee2

TITLE: Parametric Quantification of Systemic Risks for Transportation and Infrastructure Projects

SPEAKER:
John K. Hollmann
Validation Estimating LLC

John K. Hollmann: John, lead author of AACE® International’s TCM Framework (2006) and author of “Project Risk Quantification” (2016), owns Validation Estimating, LLC (VE). He works with capital program managers and project leaders in a variety of industries from process to infrastructure to improve their cost engineering practices; i.e., estimating, project control, risk quantification, etc. Mr. Hollmann is a frequent speaker at international conferences, has written many papers, and often leads training workshops. He is an Honorary Life Member of AACE® and also recipient of their Award of Merit and Lifetime Achievement Awards. He was Director of Recommended Practices at AACE® and also led development of the AACE® Decision and Risk Management Professional certification. Prior to founding VE, Mr. Hollmann led metrics and research efforts at Independent Project Analysis, Inc. Prior to that he worked in estimating and controls for owner and contractor companies. His latest venture is cloud-based risk quantification software called ValidRisk (www.validrisk.com) based on his 2016 book; transportation and infrastructure are some of the industries covered.

Synopsis: AACE RPs address empirically-based, risk-driven parametric modeling to quantify systemic risks. These RPs reflect the process industry’s embrace of phase-gate project systems and research supporting the methods. While the cost overrun-prone transportation sector is catching up in applying phase-gate systems, it lags in benchmarking and research. Research in other industries shows that fundamental practice failures (i.e., systemic risks) cause cost growth. However, in transportation and infrastructure, too-narrow estimate accuracy range expectations are wired into owner phase-gate procedures. Estimators use largely subjective risk analysis methods that underestimate contingency because it meets these narrow expectations; so, the cost overrun cycle repeats. Those who benefit from low estimates (promoters/politicians) need not lie about costs; they can just announce a project early in scope definition in perfect confidence that estimators will fail to put a price on poor scope definition. This presentation (subtitle: “we have met the enemy and he is us”) reviews the cost overrun situation, the theories, the research and the various proposed and recommended methods. Despite all evidence to the contrary, the presenter is hopeful that empirically-valid risk quantification and contingency setting practices (e.g., such as ValidRisk) will become more widely used, putting an end to endemic cost overruns in the transportation industry.

LOCATION: (Virtual via Go To Meeting)

PROGRAM TIME:
Oct 14th, 2021 @ 12:00 PM (PDT)

Link to recording of meeting:
https://transcripts.gotomeeting.com/#/s/918d955ec5468f10b47a797f110a1c59b820d12221ab63fc6dbf7ea2d9109139